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Thursday, September 02, 2010
Real-time tracking map of Hurricane Earl: Cat 4 135 mph hitting NC Cape Hatteras
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A powerful and very dangerous Hurricane Earl continued to steam toward the North Carolina Outer Banks early Thursday, with winds strengthening to 145 mph overnight. Looking at the projections for tonight, one can safely say that the damage to Cape Hatteras will be substantial even if the hurricane does not directly hit land.
Look at graphic below and from the projected reach of Earl's winds and you can clearly see its destructive path. It is also still possible that Earl will directly hit land at Cape Hatteras and possibly even Virginia Beach. Every single person should be evacuated with no exceptions. Forecasters say a dangerous storm surge could raise water levels along the coast as much as 5 - 10 feet.
A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for all of the Maryland and Delaware Atlantic coastline.
Hurricane Earl will surely affect North Carolina's Cape Hatteras. 6:30 AM Pacific Time projections predict Earl's eye is expected to be 60 miles away at 8PM Pacific Time but may still shift westward and hit Cape Hatteras and Virginia Beach.
If forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are right, the Cat. 4 storm's center, and its most dangerous effects, will stay offshore as the storm track curves gradually to the northeast and toward southeastern New England but this amateur hurricane watcher is not optimistic as Earl has actually nudged westward and probably continue to do so because the cold front that was supposed to push Earl eastward has been slow coming.
Earl was packing winds of 145 miles per hour, and situated 355 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and 820 miles south southwest of Nantucket, Thursday morning.
USE THE REAL TIME HURRICANE TRACKING TOOL BELOW TO FOLLOW EARL
Look at the trajectories of Hurricane Earl. There is still a possibility that Earl will hit inland endangering North Carolina up to Massachusetts. On the upper right side corner of the map, turn on Forecast Models. Also click on the Clouds button to see the reach of Earl's winds. You will notice that Earl does not have to hit the shore to inflict damage. The numerous anticipated paths underscore the unpredictable nature of hurricane science. Each color is a different predictive model. The arrow on the lower left will toggle you through all the current predictions. The + and - signs on the upper left allows you to zoom in and out of the map. The US Navy NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) Hurricane Tracking model has Earl barely hitting the North Carolina shores. The live map is from my friends at StormPulse.
Tropical-storm force winds will occur from Virginia to New Jersey by late tonight, or Friday morning. The center of the hurricane should be near Southeastern New England on Friday night, forecasters said. Hurricane watches are in effect from the the Outer Banks, the North Carolina-Virginia border to Cape Henlopen, Del., and from Westport, Mass., to Plymouth, Mass., including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.
The storm will cause dangerous winds and heavy rain in the hurricane warning areas, as well as a storm surge that could raise waters three to five feet along the coast. In the open ocean, Earl was generating 50-foot waves.
Governors in North Carolina, Maryland and Virginia declared states of emergency on Wednesday.
| Sep 02 at 08:20 AM
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
Real-time tracking: Hurricane Earl raised to Cat 4: Evacuations underway
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Tourists and residents of Ocracoke Island were rushing onto ferries and boarding up their properties on Wednesday, as officials ordered the mandatory evacuations as Hurricane Earl was upgraded again to a Category 4 hurricane.
A Category 4 hurricane has maximum winds increasing to 135 miles an hour. The National Hurricane Center extended its Hurricane Earl warnings and watches from North Carolina to Massachusetts.
Most tourist inns and facilities in the Outer banks turned to bust when forecasters predicted the storm would hit the area late on Thursday.
As the National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane warning for the North Carolina coast on Wednesday, the state's division of Emergency Management also issued a mandatory evacuation for visitors on Hatteras Island at 8:30 a.m., according to a spokesman for the office.
Further up the Atlantic Coast, where a hurricane watch was issued for the Virginia coast, Gov. Bob McDonnell declared a state of emergency. People were optimistic earlier when Earl had at first weakened to a Category 3 early Wednesday with winds of 125 m.p.h., headed past the Bahamas on a northwest track. But the National Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. on Wednesday that preliminary data from an Air Force plane indicated that the force of the storm had increased.
Hurricane Earl was still about 680 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, but forecasters were predicting the storm would change its course slightly late Wednesday and deal a glancing blow to North Carolina, making its closest approach to Cape Hatteras on Thursday. As I said in an earlier post, I think Earl will hit land because the cold front that is supposed to push it eastward is not coming in as fast as hoped for.
New England is also on target and Earl will probably hit Cape Cod and Maine shoreline on Friday night and Saturday.
Most forecasters predict that the storm will not likely make landfall and will stay about 100 miles off coast. Though my amateur perspective says it will hit land in the Cape Hatteras.
The National Hurricane Center extended its hurricane watch from the North Carolina/Virginia border north to Cape Henlopen in Delaware.
Look at the trajectories of Hurricane Earl. There is still a possibility that Earl will hit inland endangering North Carolina up to Massachusetts. On the upper right side corner of the map, turn on Forecast Models. Also click on the Clouds button to see the reach of Earl's winds. You will notice that Earl does not have to hit the shore to inflict damage. The numerous anticipated paths underscore the unpredictable nature of hurricane science. Each color is a different predictive model. The US Navy NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) Hurricane Tracking model has Earl barely hitting the North Carolina shores. The live map is from my friends at StormPulse.
A little background on hurricanes. There could be no science that is more inexact and prone to conjecture as weather forecasting. The proof of this is the number of hurricane models out there. Try playing with the interactive map above. The map is the closest you will get to real time tracking and projections. The tracking incorporates multiple projections from all the hurricane monitoring and prediction services. Despite all the tracks available. I use the "most reliable" method - the straight line ruler method. The method simply says take a straight line ruler and lay down a line on the dominant immediate past track and you have a greater than 50/50 chance of accuracy. Based on this method, I still have Earl hitting between Wilmington and Cape Hatteras.
Come back often as this real-time storm track will be updated all the time.
VACATIONERS LOSE
Tens of thousands who may have planned vacations in the eastern seaboard will find themselves out of luck losing both the vacation time and money.
Several airlines, including American, Continental, Delta, Frontier and US Airways, were pro-actively waiving change fees for passengers who wanted to reschedule flights from impacted airports along the East Coast.
USA Today reports:
The estimated 91% of Labor Day travelers who plan to drive to their destinations this weekend, getting a refund on accommodations may be more difficult.
In North Carolina, the Vacation Rental Act states that vacation renters who are offered but don't accept hurricane insurance are on the hook financially if they can't get to their vacation unit or are forced to leave early. Those who do pay for insurance - - an estimated 6% to 6.5% of the total rental cost - are reimbursed if their location is placed under a mandatory evacuation order, says Scott Leggat, chairman of the Hatteras Island Chamber of Commerce and vice president of marketing for Outer Beaches Realty.
That said, "a lot of owners are sympathetic and will try find a solution," which may include a future credit for unused nights, adds Leggat.
FEMA is on high alert already now. FEMA has now started to move some of their employees to the states that will be affected. "We are making sure we get going early, we are not waiting for those storms to hit," said Mr. Craig Fugate, describing how the agency has changed its approach to the massive storms. In addition, he says, FEMA is not waiting for governors to ask for assistance.
Here are some useful links to prepare for Earl.
Fingers are crossed and prayers for all in the east coast.
| Sep 01 at 04:00 PM
Real-time tracking: Cat 3 Hurricane Earl triggers NC evacuations
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This is not a drill. Mandatory evacuation orders were issued for Okracoke Island, on North Carolina's Outer Banks, and Cape Lookout National Seashore.
North Carolina Dare County Emergency Management officials issued a mandatory evacuation order for all visitors to Hatteras Island Wednesday, effective immediately. Hyde County also declared a state of emergency and ordered mandatory evacuations beginning today for all visitors and residents of Ocracoke Island in the Outer Banks. Despite all the predictions that Hurricane Earl will not hit land, a strong possibility remains that it could make North Carolina landfall as a Category 3.
A hurricane watch is in effect for North Carolina and Virginia from north of Surf City, N.C. to Parramore Island, Va. including the Pamlico and Albermarle Sounds.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Surf City. A spokesman for the National Hurricane Center said that a storm this powerful has not threatened such a large area of the East Coast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.
VIRGINIA DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY
Anticipating the arrival of Earl, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell declared a state of emergency today for his state's coastal communities as early as Thursday night. The declaration gives Virginia local authorities the power to enforce mandatory evacuations if necessary.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said just before 5 a.m. San Francisco time that he system was 780 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina, moving northwest and away from the Turks and Caicos Islands at 16 mph. "The worst case scenario is Earl does make landfall in the Outer Banks and even in New England and brings major hurricane conditions to those places. Our forecast is for this to pass just offshore but it wouldn't take much of a turn for it to hit land." said John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
Look at the trajectories of Hurricane Earl. There is still a possibility that Earl will hit inland endangering North Carolina up to Massachusetts. On the upper right side corner of the map, turn on Forecast Models. Also click on the Clouds button to see the reach of Earl's winds. You will notice that Earl does not have to hit the shore to inflict damage. The numerous anticipated paths underscore the unpredictable nature of hurricane science. Each color is a different predictive model. The US Navy NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) Hurricane Tracking model has Earl barely hitting the North Carolina shores. The live map is from my friends at StormPulse.
A little background on hurricanes. There could be no science that is more inexact and prone to conjecture as weather forecasting. The proof of this is the number of hurricane models out there. Try playing with the interactive map above. The map is the closest you will get to real time tracking and projections. The tracking incorporates multiple projections from all the hurricane monitoring and prediction services. Despite all the tracks available. I use the "most reliable" method - the straight line ruler method. The method simply says take a straight line ruler and lay down a line on the dominant immediate past track and you have a greater than 50/50 chance of accuracy. Based on this method, I still have Earl hitting between Wilmington and Cape Hatteras.
Come back often as this real-time storm track will be updated all the time.
Packing top sustained winds of 125 mph (205 kph), Earl was churning over the open Atlantic. Earl is expected to sideswipe the densely populated coast from North Carolina to New England on a forecast northward offshore path during the upcoming U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend marking the end of the summer vacation season. Storm surges from 16 - 31 feet are expected with sure damage to low lying shore communities in the Outer Banks and other coastal areas.
Rain from Earl will probably start arriving in Boston tomorrow night, with the worst impact the following afternoon. The hurricane is expected to pass about 50 to 100 miles southeast of Nantucket with wind gusts of at least 74 mph for the island and Cape Cod, he said. Boston is forecast to receive heavy rain and may see winds in the 39 mph to 73 mph range. "The rain could be heavy enough for some localized urban flooding," said Bob Thompson, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's Taunton, Massachusetts, office. "That could be the biggest impact for Boston."
| Sep 01 at 03:51 PM
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
All DRM-free MP3 music you can download for 30 days except it's likely a scam
Follow me @yobie on Twitter.
There are a lot of cool music-related startups and companies the Bay Area - Gracenote, MOG, IODA, Lala, Iris Distribution, etc... Too many to name really and it's hard to stand out.
But there is one mysterious company that stood out very quickly.
"Zaptunes.com. Your ONLY source to FREE and UNLIMITED music download!"
It begins with a tantalizing offer of download as much free unprotected music that you take in 30 days. Further, it's about downloading music from the major labels. In their site, they have links to music by Lady Gaga and Arcade Fire. They also claimed that they have legal downloads of the Beatles and AC/DC which I thought was strange since I know know for a fact the Beatles and AC/DC's catalogs are not available for digital downloads.
Now I know that web sites occasionally have typo errors on their sites but the grammar and the typos on Zaptune's site are over the top. Their press release is also full of errors. I'll leave it to you to read what's on their site.
They claimed to have raised $5M from angels they could not reveal. I can appreciate that because I know many people value their privacy. But you would want to know who is behind the company asking for your credit card. They list John Stewart as CEO, Ronald Hems as CTO and a Jessica Mayers as CIO. None of the persons listed could be corroborated with a Google Search. There is a Ronald Hems of Hems Rubbish Removal named in a civil lawsuit.
ZapTunes said it will charge $25 per month for unlimited downloads. The company said it would offer free downloads until 10,000 members have signed up.
"We have negotiated with the top label companies to let us offer unlimited downloads to our members in exchange for a loyalty management (sic)," the site says.
Zaptunes requires members to supply credit card information up front. A note on the site says, "This is a requirement set by most of the label companies we are working with. They just want us to have a credit card number on file for every member that signs up, in case if they want to start charging for downloads in future."
Their terms of use is a joke. Sorry but there is no other way to say it. If you gave them your credit card, the joke is on you.
ZapTunes.com does not provide any downloads from its servers. ZapTunes.com just enables its members to find free or paid music available on the Internet. The Artists/Tracks displayed on the home page and other parts of the website are for promotional purposes only and may not be available for free or paid download.
ZapTunes.com has a database of websites that offer free and legal music downloads. Whenever a registered members looks for a song, ZapTunes searches for that song in the database, and if it finds a website offering a legal download of that song, it is displayed it to the user. If not, then ZapTunes looks for that song on Amazon, iTunes and various other paid to download websites, and displays the user their options.
Translation is Zaptunes does a Google search for music tracks and connects you to the download of the track but if they can't find it, you can go to iTunes and buy it. Their terms of use totally contradict what they claimed in their press release.
What happened to free and unlimited?
One more thing they have a "trusted seal logo" from Web Guard. They do not link to anything and I dare you to find a Web Guard on the Internet that performs the job of both Verisign AND Better Business Bureau all together.
If someone really gave this company $5M, then we have a fine specimen of a bridge for sale called the Dumbarton Bridge for a mere $1M which includes lifetime ability to take tolls from passing alien ships.
According to HypeBot, Zaptunes claims to have a deal in place with "Sony Music" -- interestingly, they didn't specify Sony/ATV publishing, co-owned by the Michael Jackson family trust -- which controls part of the Lennon/McCartney Beatles catalog. But then a Zaptunes rep said he couldn't go into further detail of the licensing agreement.
OK... buyer beware. If it's too good to be true, it most probably is.
By the way, here is the link to the FBI's pages to prevent Internet and credit card fraud.
| Aug 31 at 07:19 PM
Real-time Hurricane Earl storm tracking - N Carolina in for a Cat 3 or 4
Follow me @yobie on Twitter.
This could be the big one of the hurricane season. Despite all the predictions that Hurricane Earl will not hit land, a strong possibility remains that it could make North Carolina landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.
If Hurricane Earl hits land on the east coast, it could be reminiscent of Hurricane Grace which inspired Sebastian Junger's The Perfect Storm. Regardless of whether Hurricane Earls hits North Carolina's land or if it makes the upward turn north, the category 3 or 4 wind damage could still be devastating.
If Earl does not hit North Carolina, it is still possible that Earl could hit Massachusetts on Friday as a category 1 or 2 hurricane.
Look at the trajectories of Hurricane Earl. There is still a possibility that Earl will hit inland endangering North Carolina up to Massachusetts. On the upper right side corner of the map, turn on Forecast Models. The numerous anticipated paths underscore the unpredictable nature of hurricane science. Each color is a different predictive model. The live map is from my friends at StormPulse.
A little background on hurricanes. There could be no science that is more inexact and prone to conjecture as weather forecasting. The proof of this is the number of hurricane models out there. Try playing with the interactive map above. The map is the closest you will get to real time tracking and projections. The tracking incorporates multiple projections from all the hurricane monitoring and prediction services. Despite all the tracks available. I use the "most reliable" method - the straight line ruler method. The method simply says take a straight line ruler and lay down a line and you have a greater than 50/50 chance of accuracy. Based on this method, I have Earl hitting between Wilmington and Cape Hatteras.
Come back often as this real-time storm track will be updated all the time.
Earl is currently pulling away from Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 4. It is tracking to hit its next potential landfall - North Carolina's Outer Banks. Earl brought heavy rain and high winds to Puerto Rico and much of the northern Lesser Antilles yesterday, though it appears that the islands were spared major damage. However Earl brought waves of sixteen feet to San Juan, and waves offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet early this morning.
If the storm surge hits 16 - 31 feet, there will be sure damage to low lying shore communities in the Outer Banks and other coastal areas. I can't help but remember Katrina right now. If Earl hits land at a category 3 or 4, it could turn out to be a very bad weekend in east coast.
The secret though is preparation. We know the storm could hit land so state, federal and local governments have to be prepared now.
FEMA should be on high alert already now as the Federal Emergency Management Agency does not have the luxury of waiting until the last minute. FEMA has now started to move some of their employees to the states that will be affected. "We are making sure we get going early, we are not waiting for those storms to hit," said Mr. Fugate, describing how the agency has changed its approach to the massive storms. In addition, he says, FEMA is not waiting for governors to ask for assistance.
Fingers are crossed and prayers for all in the east coast.
| Aug 31 at 02:23 PM
Friday, August 20, 2010
9/11 mosque: Obama can have it both ways - Support 1st Amendment & not like mosque
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The First Amendment to the United States constitution dictates and demands:
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
The pain felt by 9/11 families are their opposition to the ground zero "mosque" is real and not difficult to understand.
A controversial "mosque" is being built two blocks away from 9/11 ground zero. It is not being built on top of hallowed ground. The hallowed ground meme was invented by those who want to use a highly emotional issue to divide the country.
First of all there is no mosque with towering minarets and loud speakers blaring Islamic prayers several times a day. The structure will be a well designed and yet unassuming building currently called Park51 and when finished will be the Cordoba Initiative Mosque and Cultural Center. The building will contain, among other features, an area of worship - a mosque with a swimming pool, gym, basketball court), a 500-seat auditorium, a restaurant and a cooking school, exhibition space, a library, art studios, a 9/11 memorial and a child care center (which people are now calling a madrasa).
Personally I oppose the "mosque" being two blocks close to ground zero not because of its location or proximity to the World Trade Center site. I oppose it because whether I like it or not, it is now a wedge issue the country does not need. My opposition and that of over 67% of the country is for all intents and purposes an acceptance of reality - That a large majority of the country does not like the idea of a mosque being built close to ground zero and we're free not to like it. The opposition is emotional but it is valid and understandable.
Opposition though is an empty argument. From a practical point of view, "no to the mosque" is only an exercise in free speech. The Cordoba developers own the land and the building and have the necessary zoning and building permits and money so nothing can stop them. No federal, state or city law can be enacted or enforced to prevent law abiding Muslims from building their house of worship. Simple.
But I love the US Constitution more --- It is immutable and it stands for all that is right in the United States.
So there. It's time to leave the meme.
All the shouting and screaming will not change what protects the mosque's right to build on their lawfully owned property and lawfully permitted by New York City authorities in accordance with all city ordinances and rules. The first amendment is firm and resolute in its words. There is no carve out or exceptions for Christians or Hindus, Catholics or Buddhists and certainly none for Islam.
If the opponents of the mosque are truly resolute in their convictions, they should take up a collection much like Joseph Pulitzer did to realize the building of the Statue of Liberty. Raise money and pay the Park51 owners a fair price for their property so they could move their house of worship to a less controversial location in Manhattan. Real opponents should also buy the two other mosques that are already in place near ground zero - The Manhattan Mosque which is five blocks from the northeast corner of the World Trade Center site and the al-Farah mosque which at 245 West Broadway, is about a dozen blocks north.
I am just as free as anyone else not to like it but I won't be part of any effort to deny Muslims or any other religion the right to worship because as far as I can see, there is no logical, legal or constitutionally acceptable way to do so. I peacefully disagree, say my piece of disapproval and move on. Live and let live.
People are just going to have to live with the fact that there are Muslims in the United States and they need their house of worship. With 21% of the planet being Muslim, we have to deal with the reality that we have to live and coexist peacefully with Muslims. If they buy property fair and square, follow all the zoning and building rules set by their respective communities, they can build their mosque despite the opposition of others. While there will be opposition to mosques all over the country, there is also opposition to new churches and schools too - Though most opposition is because of community concerns over noise and traffic. Even in liberal Berkeley, there are those opposed to a Thai Buddhist temple.
So most of us will have it both ways. We support the US Constitution and understand the First Amendment and celebrate all its magnificence and glory and we can also grumble about the "mosque" as our grumbling opposition and dislike of the Park51 "mosque" is equally protected by the same First Amendment. It is irony at its greatest. Life is not perfect.
If there are those who want to amend the constitution to carve out an exception for Islam, I say go ahead and try. Try and get 2/3 of the Senate and 2/3 of the House of Representatives and 2/3 of all the states' legislatures and senates and then get 3/4 of all the states to ratify it.
Good luck.
Till then we can grumble and learn to live with highs and lows of being in a democratic constitutional country.
By the way, we still have not passed the Equal Rights Amendment guaranteeing equal rights for women. There is also a bill stalled in the US House of Representatives and Senate to help the 9/11 first responders whose health was compromised by exposure to lethal materials and pollutants during the ground zero response --- How about getting that bill through?
| Aug 20 at 09:05 AM
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Why Google-Verizon net neutrality scheming plot makes no sense
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Two weeks ago Verizon and Google announced their framework to assure net neutrality. The overwhelming verdict - a huge gigantic FAIL and a poorly designed scheme to hoodwink the public.
First, what is net neutrality?
Network neutrality (also net neutrality, Internet neutrality) is a principle proposed for user access networks participating in the Internet that advocates no restrictions by Internet Service Providers and governments on content, sites, platforms, on the kinds of equipment that may be attached, and no restrictions on the modes of communication allowed.
The principle states that if a given user pays for a certain level of Internet access, and another user pays for the same level of access, then the two users should be able to connect to each other at the subscribed level of access.
Though the term did not enter popular use until several years later, since the early 2000s advocates of net neutrality and associated rules have raised concerns about the ability of broadband providers to use their last mile infrastructure to block Internet applications and content (e.g., websites, services, protocols), particularly those of competitors. In the US particularly, but elsewhere as well, the possibility of regulations designed to mandate the neutrality of the Internet has been subject to fierce debate.
Neutrality proponents claim that telecom companies seek to impose a tiered service model in order to control the pipeline and thereby remove competition, create artificial scarcity, and oblige subscribers to buy their otherwise uncompetitive services. Many believe net neutrality to be primarily important as a preservation of current freedoms. Vinton Cerf (coincidentally Vint works for Google), considered a "father of the Internet" and co-inventor of the Internet Protocol, Tim Berners-Lee, creator of the Web, and many others have spoken out in favor of network neutrality.
The Google-Verizon framework will carve out exemptions from net neutrality rules for wireless services
The Verizon-Google framework proposes that full net neutrality is to be maintained for wireline services such as DSL and cable Internet. Wireless providers will be allowed to tier services for wireless Internet services. AT&T quickly followed with a statement that expresses their support for the Google-Verizon scheme.
Why do I call it a scheming plot?
For those of you who do not travel much, let me tell you what is happening in the rest of the world.
In many countries particularly developing nations such as the Philippines and India, many communities do not have wireline services for telephone service and Internet service. Why? It's simple economics --- Laying down fiber optics and copper cable to support wireline services is extremely expensive and time consuming. Setting up towers to support and maintain wireless cellular phones and Internet services is cheaper. The same goes for 4G or 4th Generation Internet Protocol based services. It's cheaper to set up satellite uplinks and a series of wireless antennas than laying down miles of cable or copper needed to deliver phone services and Internet for areas that never had and will never have wireline phone service.
Even in the US, there are areas that are not serviced by the cable or phone company. In my last startup, we could not get cable or DSL-based Internet or VOIP access in the Dogpatch District of San Francisco so we had to use WiLine. And who is WiLine? A wireless Internet company!
WiLine is a voice and data provider that provides its services using wireless technology. It essentially installs radios on building roof tops and carries traffic wirelessly to one of its five data center presence points in San Francisco. Look mom... no wires!
So are they going to be exempt from the Google-Verizon framework? I would say yes for certain as they do not provide a wireline based service.
Also remember when you first had Internet in your home? You had wires all over and a modem that ran at a snail's speed then you had DSL and cable (which still had wires) and you were limited to where the wires, cable and phone outlets were. Today you buy a $20 WiFi router and you have Internet access throughout the entire house. Pop for a more expensive wireless router and you could even provide for your neighbors' Internet and voice over IP access.
What happened in your home will happen in your street, your community and eventually your city. It has already happened in Mountain View, California. There is currently free wireless Internet in downtown Mountain View's Castro Street c/o Google in fact! If you have the right smart phone and set it up properly, you can make phone calls without using your minutes in Mountain View because it uses a wireless WiFi Internet connection. Look mom... still no wires!
Here's the bottom line. The distinction between wired and wireless Internet access is an artificial line that is beginning to disappear and will do so rapidly. The days of cellular mobile protocols such GSM and CDMA are numbered. In less than five years, most communication services will move toward a wireless Internet protocol and its successor IPV6 - And the expansion will all be wireless. The wired and wireless barriers are artificial. You can call anyone from your current smart phone without ever using the mobile phone network. Skype already runs on Verizon's data (aka Internet) network. Vonage works on my iPhone. Every smart phone is capable of VOIP calls. Is there a logical demarcation? When is wireless not wireless? WiLine is a wireless service. Will WiLine or similar future companies be be exempt?
So what does the Google-Verizon framework do? It will codify and turn into law and regulation the exemption of wireless services from net neutrality rules. Wireless Internet services is guaranteed to expand in the future. As for net neutrality regulated wired services, they will slowly die to be replaced by cheaper, faster, ubiquitous, easier to install and maintain wireless services. It's like making rules to regulate the horse and buggy. Regulate the past and dying and have an unfettered environment for what is surely to grow and expand - Verizon calls and Comcast puts.
Who will get the short stick? You guessed right! You and me, the consumer.
| Aug 18 at 10:54 AM
Monday, August 16, 2010
9th Circuit agrees to temporarily stay gay marriage & asks parties to prove standing
Hope continues. Massachusetts, Iowa, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire and the District of Columbia currently permit gay and lesbian couples to marry. California has to wait till after December 6.
The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals agreed to a temporary stay of Chief U.S. District Court Judge Vaughn Walker's order last week that would have barred the state from enforcing Proposition 8. Judge Walker's order would have allowed same-sex couples to obtain marriage licenses across the state immediately. Walker on Aug. 4 declared Proposition 8 unconstitutional, and then found there is no longer legal justification to deny same sex couples the right to marry while his ruling is reviewed on appeal. The 9th Circuit did not rule on the merits or validity of Judge Walker's ruling nor did the court grant a permanent stay as the intervenors (Note: There are serious questions to whether the intervenors have standing or the right to to even appeal the case) requested.
Despite the ruling by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals to allow the same sex marriage ban to continue during the appeals process, there is much light at the end of the tunnel for same sex marriage proponents.
The 9th Circuit gave the two sides a few months to file briefs on Walker's ruling, and set arguments for the week of Dec. 6. There is serious doubt that plaintiffs' lawyers Ted Olsen and David Boies will not push the matter and ask the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene.
The three-judge 9th Circuit panel did not elaborate on either Walker's ruling invalidating Proposition 8 or the issue of allowing gay marriages to proceed right away. But the judges asked the Prop 8 ballot measure's lawyers to offer arguments on why they have the legal right to appeal when the state's top two officials, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Attorney General Brown, refuse to defend the law and say it is unconstitutional.
This means that the 3 judge panel is still wrestling with the issue of standing.
Plaintiffs' lawyers and California Attorney General Jerry Brown have pressed the 9th Circuit to allow same-sex marriages to resume immediately. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has not filed a brief with the 9th Circuit, but did file one before Judge Walker and asked to block Proposition 8, agreeing with Judge Walker that it is unconstitutional.
Given the emotions on this issue, no one could second guess the 3-judge panel's reasons for continuing the same sex marriage ban. The facts and precedents on the "standing" issue do not favor the intervenors and given they were given instructions to justify their standing to appeal, conjecture has it that they have a much higher hurdle and burden to even begin to prove their case.
| Aug 16 at 05:02 PM
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Bandwidth conference talk: Universal Music nixes MTV as "old media" slowly dies
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In another sign that "old media" is dying, Universal Music Group cut its ties to MTV and MTV.com. Universal is home to almost every big star in music today including @LadyGaga (who has a staggering 5,533,535 Twitter followers), @KanyeWest (who has a modest 630,819 followers compared to @LadyGaga), Taylor Swift and Justin Bieber. MTV may have made Madonna but Twitter gives @JustinBieber 4,472,413 fans that follow everything he tweets out. Instead of putting its content on MTV.com, Universal will "air" its music videos exclusively online at vevo.com. The change will happen after the Video Music Awards on Sept 21. Vevo.com is the No. 3 measured video site on the web, according to ComScore, with 43.7 million unique viewers in June.
Once upon a time, in order to launch and promote their artists labels, managers and agents had to negotiate and sometimes beg MTV for slots. Not anymore. It seems the labels don't even care about "old media". For Universal and its artists, being exclusively on-line is just fine.
In the new media space, an artist's presence in Twitter is deemed more important than a Myspace page. Just three years ago or so, a Myspace page was required for any self respecting band or superstar. Today it's about how many Twitter followers and Facebook friends a band can muster. The change from Myspace-required to Myspace-what's-that? speaks to the velocity of change in both the music and technology world.
Bandwidth Music and Technology Conference, August 19 & 20, 2010 @ San Francisco's The Bently Conference Center
Next week, August 19 and 20, music business legends, major label executives and new music tech innovators are coming to San Francisco to mix it up at the Bandwidth Music and Technology Conference. The conference is happening at the Bently Reserve on Battery Street.
The Bandwidth Conference is on its sixth year bringing together the brightest minds in music and technology. This year is special because most of the major music labels are coming - Interscope, Geffen A&M Records, Universal Music Group (@Universal_Music - 51,191 followers), Warner Music Group, Hollywood Records, Sony Music and Warner Bros Records. In addition, super tech savvy music distribution companies like IODA, CD Baby, The Orchard and Beggars will be there. The biggest names in tech Cisco, Walmart, HP and Twitter will be mixing it up with the old and new players in music.
You'd think the music industry would be in a glum and dour mood but it seems totally the opposite. Despite the precipitous decline of CD sales and rise of online and offline piracy, legitimate sales of digital music continues to grow. Artists, managers and agents are no longer under the thumb of radio or music TV program directors. They don't have to pay payola for airtime. Today it's about your Twitter feed, your social networking creds and your relationship to the music bloggers. SPIN Magazine and Rolling Stone used to be the holy grail of music stardom... Not anymore.
Adam Farrell, from Beggar's Group said, I think what really works is being patient and letting the music find the audience and the audience find the music. There are so few barriers between the music and the fans. You don't have to just fill up the marketing score card with contests, viral videos, remixes, etc. There's too much crap out there and you confuse your fans and potential fans. It can be distracting. If you have a great album, the focus is getting people to listen to it."
Agents do not waste their time trying to get the programming director of some rock and roll radio station to return their calls any more. Michael Fiebach (@mfiebach) who works for DJ Shadow mused, "I think that the key to effective marketing has always been creativity. However, with the proliferation of easy-to-use internet tools at artist's disposal, the level of creativeness is now more important than ever. It is not original to have a Twitter account. It is more original to respond to each and every Tweet, and Direct Message the most engaged Twitter users with special offers for your Web Store (just one example of MANY). It is even more original to use online analytics tools to pinpoint your demographics, and offer special deals to specific consumers at varying engagement levels; all geo-targeted and location specific." @DjShadow has 33,627 Twitter followers.
Mass media is being replaced by pin-point precise media. Music today is more focused on the audience of one rather than getting on some shock music jock's playlist. And why not? A single person on Twitter can have 10,000 followers so the multiplier effect is astronomical. Hitting the right fan returns far more results than being on a Sirius satellite channel or a mention on Billboard magazine.
So if you want to meet the legends and rising stars of the music business such as Elektra founder Jac Holzman and Ted Cohen, former SVP at EMI (@spinaltap) and current managing partner of TAG Strategic or rising tech stars Larry Weintraub of Fanscape and Matt Graves (@mgrooves) of Twitter, come, meet and listen to the future of music.
Ashli Lewis, founder of Bandwidth has offered SFGate blog readers a special discount. Enter the code SFGATE when you register.
See you all there.
| Aug 14 at 12:56 PM
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Why the gay marriages and parties should begin in California
Follow me @yobie on Twitter.
I am not a lawyer but it seems clear to me the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals will not take the appeal of Proposition 8 supporters. It does not make sense for them to even take the case.
There is an interesting concept in law and that is "standing". Standing simply means that in order to sue, you must have the legal right to sue.
Standing is the legal right to initiate a lawsuit. To do so, a person must be sufficiently affected by the matter at hand, and there must be a case or controversy that can be resolved by legal action.There are three requirements for Article III standing: (1) injury in fact, which means an invasion of a legally protected interest that is (a) concrete and particularized, and (b) actual or imminent, not conjectural or hypothetical; (2) a causal relationship between the injury and the challenged conduct, which means that the injury fairly can be traced to the challenged action of the defendant, and has not resulted from the independent action of some third party not before the court; and (3) a likelihood that the injury will be redressed by a favorable decision, which means that the prospect of obtaining relief from the injury as a result of a favorable ruling is not too speculative. Lujan v. Defenders of Wildlife, 112 S. Ct. 2130, 2136 (1992) (Lujan). The party invoking federal jurisdiction bears the burden of establishing each of these elements.
So back to same sex marriage. The brilliance of lead lawyers Ted Olson and David Boies' proposition and lawsuit was to carefully select the people who were to bring the lawsuit against the State of California. The lawsuit is Perry vs Schwarzenegger. Of course we know Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is the legal head and representative of the people of the State of California.
Clearly the people who sued the State of California who are a lesbian (two women) and gay (two men) couple were clearly deprived of 14th Amendment equal protection rights to marry. The State of California said to them, "Until the courts decide otherwise, you cannot marry in California." Marriage is a fundamental right according to the Supreme Court. Now the defendant is the State of California who is legally represented by the Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and State Attorney General Jerry Brown.
You or I or any Joe Blow citizen, church of the eternal blinding light or any organization for that matter can't just go and file a lawsuit and demand the courts to recognize you, I or us as representatives of the State of California. It simply will not happen. In other words, the only parties with standing are the plaintiffs and the defendants --- The gay couples that sued and the State of California. Some guy off the street who voted for Prop 8 or some church who supported it can't just claim he/they represent the State of California and is the aggrieved party. If the Court of Appeals allowed this appeal, it would be judicial chaos for all sorts of lawsuits. Hmmm... I represent the State of California and I hate red light cameras... Not!!!
So back to Jerry Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger --- Both of them in their official capacities as Attorney General and Governor of California filed motions and briefs to Judge Vaughn Walker invoking their status as the parties with standing in the lawsuit and asked that gay marriage be allowed in California.
It is clear that Judge Walker agreed with both the Governor and the Attorney General that the stay be lifted albeit giving the other parties time to file an appeal. Again, read the initial ruling and the ruling lifting the stay after August 18.
Judge Walker casts serious doubt on whether the proponents of Prop 8 have "standing" to pursue an appeal because they do not speak for the State of California, and the official representatives of the state agree that Prop 8 is unconstitutional. Judge Walker said: "As it appears at least doubtful that proponents will be able to proceed with their appeal without a state defendant, it remains unclear whether the court of appeals will be able to reach the merits of proponents' appeal. In light of those concerns, proponents may have little choice but to attempt to convince either the governor or the attorney general to file an appeal to ensure jurisdiction."
I doubt if the 9th Circuit would be willing to craft a new standard for Prop 8 supporters. An interesting quote was sent to me by a reader. "Appellate courts generally try to resolve cases on the narrowest grounds possible. Since the question of whether the intervenors have standing to pursue the appeal is a procedural/jurisdictional issue, and not the merits of the case, an appellate court should look to that question first to see if the case can be resolved without addressing the merits. If the court decides that the intervenors don't have standing to appeal, the court could resolve the case in favor of the plaintiffs without granting much room for the Supreme Court to take the case and reverse it." If the 9th Circuit said that any moron can claim they represent the State of California, this appeal would be the first in a torrent of appeals they would have to look at for all sorts of stupid lawsuits.
I seriously doubt that Brown and/or Schwarzenegger will agree to represent the Prop 8 folks so there. I really think the celebrations can begin.
Congratulations to all who fought for marriage equality.
| Aug 12 at 04:48 PM
Editor's note:
This is an SFGate.com City Brights Blog. These blogs are not written or edited by SFGate or the San Francisco Chronicle. The authors are solely responsible for the content.
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